Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Big O Notation, big numbers and the planet

The thing about exponential growth is that at some point, the numbers start growing very large. It starts off slowly, and then at a certain threshold, the graph starts going vertical.

It reminds me of big O notation in computer science. It doesn't really matter what the "constant" is, the important thing to pay attention to is how fast the required computation time grows. You've got an algorithm that grows at n squared time, it doesn't really matter what the constant multiplier is. The growth in n squared will reduce the constant multiplier to insignificance.

You look at the earth and it's really a finite resource. The earth is huge but finite. Exponential growth will always start running up against hard limits. We've got 7 billion people now and I wonder if the earth can support the people and the lifestyles and the attitudes we have now.

It doesn't really matter what the "constant" is with our exponential growth. It's not a question of if but when. And we're quibbling about when these things will happen.

We can see the signs everywhere. Look at the oceans. Fish stocks in the ocean are disappearing. Fleets of factory trawlers running 365/24/7. The prophetic movie Soylent Green revolved around the "secret" of the oceans dying. It's just a matter of time now before there is a massive collapse.

http://scienceblogs.com/tetrapodzoology/2009/06/12/the-end-of-the-line/

Does it really matter if the collapse happens in 2100 or 2050? It's just a few short decades away.

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